Because of this, it can be very hard for us to accept someone telling us that they think we may be wrong. When they tell us you should really have used a 4 block not a 6 block on that side of the wall to make it stronger, but we have already finished the wall – the last thing we want to accept is that they may be right and taking apart the wall would lead to a better end model! So we engage our Confirmation Bias to help us justify continuing on what may well be the wrong path.
But what is Confirmation Bias?
The Americal Psychology Association (APA) defines Confirmation Bias as:
Confirmation Bias is the tendency to look for information that supports, rather than rejects, one’s preconceptions, typically by interpreting evidence to confirm existing beliefs while rejecting or ignoring any conflicting data.
Basically, it is a refusal to accept you may be wrong despite any evidence that might prove that you are! As insanely successful investor Warren Buffet
What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.
So back to our Lego example, even though all evidence may point to a 4 block being better where you had put a 6 block, you won’t change the design because “you know you are right”. In reality, all that is happening is your brain is saying “Hey, invested time and effort into building this wall, there is no way I am going to take it apart now because a few people say I am wrong. Actually, if you look at it, I think it is much better as it is, it looks nicer and I am certain it is stronger.”
Loss aversion plays a strong part there as well. You have invested time and effort and don’t want to feel that it was wasted because you were wrong and may have to start again.
How Do We Avoid Confirmation Bias and Embrace Being Wrong?
This is the key question, which we need to break down into avoiding confirmation bias and embracing being wrong.
Two quotes are very helpful here. The first is from my father-in-law!
When you are absolutely certain you are right, consider the possibility you may be wrong.